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August 2021 - Hit Refresh by Satya Nadella, with Greg Shaw and Jill Tracie Nichols

This month we look at how Satya Nadella reignited Microsoft’s fire and attacked new spaces with a growth mindset. The book is loaded with excellent management philosophy and complex Microsoft history.

Tech Themes

  1. Bing: The Other Search Engine. After starting at Microsoft as an engineer and rising through the ranks to lead Microsoft Dynamics (its CRM product), Nadella was handpicked to lead the re-launch of a brand new search engine, Microsoft Bing. Bing was one of Microsoft’s first “born-in-the-cloud” businesses and Nadella quickly recognized four core areas of focus: distributed systems, consumer product design, understanding the economics, of two-sided marketplaces, and AI. Microsoft had a troubled history with search engines and wanted to go big quickly, submitting an offer to buy Yahoo for $45B in February of 2008. Microsoft was rebuffed and thus Nadella found himself launching Search Checkpoint #1 in September of 2008 ahead of a June 2009 Bing launch. What are the odds that Microsoft’s future CEO would have early cloud, distributed systems, and advanced AI leadership experience? It was an almost prescient combination!

  2. Red Dog to Azure. Microsoft started working on the cloud two years after Amazon launched AWS. In 2008, veteran software architects Ray Ozzie and Dave Cutler created a secret team inside Microsoft known as Red Dog, which was focused on building a cloud infrastructure product. Red Dog was stationed under Microsoft’s Servers and Tools business unit (STB), with products such as Windows Server and Microsoft’s powerful RDBMS, SQL Server. In 2010, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer asked Nadella to lead the STB business unit and set the vision for their then single-digit millions cloud infrastructure business. It was a precarious situation: “The server and tools business was at the peak of its commercial success and yet it was missing the future. The organizing was deeply divided over the importance of the cloud business. There was constant tension between diverging forces.” How did Nadella resolve this tension? It was simple - he made choices and rallied his team around those decisions. He focused the team on hybrid cloud, data, and ML capabilities where Microsoft could take advantage of its on-premise, large enterprise heritage while providing an on-ramp for customers eager to make the shift to the cloud. Microsoft has since surged to an estimated 20% worldwide market share making it one of the biggest and fastest-growing products in the world!

  3. Re-Mixed Reality. Microsoft’s gaming portfolio is impressive: Xbox, Mojang (aka Minecraft), Zenimax Media (Maker of Fallout, Wolfenstein, and DOOM). Microsoft also owns the Hololens, a virtual reality headset that competes with Facebook’s Oculus. Many believe the future computing generations will take place in virtual reality, augmented, or mixed reality. Nadella doesn’t mince words - he believes that the future will not be in virtual reality (as Facebook is betting) but rather in mixed reality, a combination of augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality, where the user experiences an augmented experience but still maintains some semblance of the outside world. Nadella lays out the benefits: “HoloLens provides access to mixed reality in which the users can navigate both their current location - interact with people in the same room - and a remote environment while also manipulating holograms and other digital objects.” Virtual reality blocks out the outside world, but that can be an overwhelming experience and impractical particularly for enterprise users of AR/VR/MR technologies. One of the big users of the HoloLens is the US Army, which recently signed a rumored $22B deal with Microsoft. It is still early days, but the future needs a new medium of computing and it might just be mixed reality!

Business Themes

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  1. Leading with Empathy. Satya Nadella’s life changed with the birth of his son. “The arrival of our son, Zain, in August 1996 had been a watershed moment in Anu’s and my life together. His suffering from asphyxia in utero had changed our lives in ways we had not anticipated. We came to understand life as something that cannot always be solved in the manner we want. Instead, we had to learn to cope. When Zain came home from the intensive care unit, Anu internalized this understanding immediately. There were multiple therapies to be administered to him every day, not to mention quite a few surgeries he needed that called for strenuous follow-up care after nerve-racking ICU stays…My son’s condition requires that I draw daily upon the very same passion for ideas and empathy that I learned from my parents.” Nadella reiterates the importance of empathy throughout the book, and rightly so, empathy is viewed as the most important leadership skill, according to recent research. How does one increase empathy? It’s actually quite simple - talk to people! Satya understands this: “It is impossible to be an empathetic leader sitting in an office behind a computer screen all day. An empathetic leader needs to be out in the world, meeting people where they live, and seeing how the technology we create affects their daily activities.” Leadership requires empathy - hopefully, we see more of it from big technology soon!

  2. Frenemies. One of the first things that Satya Nadella did after taking over the CEO role from Steve Ballmer in 2014 was reach out to Tim Cook. Apple and Microsoft had always had a love-hate relationship. In 1997, Microsoft saved Apple shortly after Steve Jobs returned by investing $150M in the company so that Apple could stave off potential bankruptcy. However, in 2014, Nadella called on Apple: “I decided we needed to get Office everywhere, including iOS and Android…I wanted unambiguously to declare, both internally and externally, that the strategy would be to center our innovation agenda around users’ needs and not simply their device.” Microsoft had tried to become a phone company with Windows Mobile in 2000, tried again with Windows Phone in 2010, and tried even harder at Windows Phone in 2013 with a $7.2B acquisition of Nokia’s mobile phone unit. Although Nadella voted ‘No’ on the deal before becoming CEO, he was forced to manage the company through a total write-off of the acquisition and the elimination of eighteen thousand jobs. So how could Nadella catch up to the mobile wave? “For me, partnerships - particularly with competitors - have to be about strengthening a company’s core businesses, which ultimately centers on creating additional value for the customer…We have to face reality. When we have a great product like Bing, Office, or Cortana but someone else has created a strong market position with their service or device, we can’t just sit on the sidelines. We have to find smart ways to partners so that our products can become available on each other's popular platforms.” Nobody knows platforms like Microsoft; Bill Gates wrote the definition of a platform: “A platform is when the economic value of everybody that uses it, exceeds the value of the company that creates it.” Nadella got over his predecessor’s worry and hatred of the competition to bring Microsoft’s software to other platforms to strengthen both of their leadership positions.

  3. Regulation and Technology. Nadella devotes an entire chapter to the idea of trust in the digital age. Using three case studies - North Korea’s attack on Sony’s servers, Edward Snowden’s leaked documents (that were held on Microsoft’s servers), and the FBI’s lawsuit against Apple to unlock an iPhone that might contain criminal information - Nadella calls for increased(!) regulation, particularly around digital technology. Satya uses a simple equation for trust: “Empathy + Shared values + Safety and Reliability = Trust over time.” Don’t you love it when a company that the government sued over anti-trust practices calls on the government to develop better laws! You’d love it even more if you saw how they used the same tactics to launch Microsoft Teams! Regulation in technology has been a hot topic recently, and Nadella is right to call on the government to create new laws for our digital world: “We do not believe that courts should seek to resolve issues of twenty-first-century technology relying on law that was written in the era of the adding machine.” He goes further to suggest potential remedies, including an efficient system for government access to corporate data, stronger privacy protections, globalized digital evidence sharing, and transparency of corporate and government data. I imagine the trend will be toward more regulation, especially with the passage of recent data laws like GDPR or CCPA, but I’m not sure we will see any real sweeping changes.

Dig Deeper

  • “Culture Eats Strategy for Breakfast” - How Satya Nadella Rebooted Microsoft

  • Satya Nadella Interview at Stanford Business School (2019)

  • Microsoft is Rolling out a New Framework to its Leaders - Business Insider

  • Satya Nadella email to employees on first day as CEO

  • HoloLens Mixed Reality Demonstration

tags: Microsoft, Satya Nadella, Apple, Tim Cook, Bing, Yahoo, Xbox, Minecraft, Facebook, Army, Mixed Reality, AR, VR, HoloLens, Oculus, Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, iOS, Android, Office, Sony, North Korea, FBI, Snowden, Empathy, Regulation, Privacy
categories: Non-Fiction
 

September 2019 - Ready Player One by Ernest Cline

Ernest Cline’s magical world of virtual reality is explores a potential new medium of communication through an excellent heroic tale.

Tech Themes

1. Wide-ranging applicability and use cases of Virtual Reality. Although the novel was written in 2011, Ernest Cline does an incredible job of detailing the complex and numerous use cases of VR throughout the novel. Cline’s 18 year old main character Wade Watts attends school via VR, where you can have a limitless number of students all learn from the same teacher. Beyond that, different worlds and galaxies are easily conjured up with different themes, time periods and technology taking learning and experience to another level: Wade spends time playing old video games in an effort to unlock certain clues about James Halliday, Wade re-enacts all of Matthew Broderick’s part in the movie War Games in an effort to unlock one of the keys, Aech and Wade frequently hang out in the Basement, a re-created 1980’s recreational room with vintage magazines and game consoles. All of these distinct use cases – education, gaming, social networking, and entertainment – are the promise of Virtual Reality. There is a long way to go before that promise is met.

2. The intersection of the online/offline world. As James Halliday writes in Anorak’s Almanac: “Going outside is highly overrated.” Ready Player One does a great job of exploring the conflation of the online and offline worlds. The book weaves together experiences from this intersection into critical moments of the book including Wade’s escape from the Stacks and his imprisonment by IOI. While there is a tangible feeling that online is the much preferred experience for all the reasons discussed above, it’s the offline in-person events that truly shape the heroic ending of the book. This serves as a reminder that the OASIS is very much a virtual reality and explores the need for in-person human connection. Ironically, this is something Halliday sorely missed out on as shown through his unrequited love for Ogden Morrow’s (co-creator of the OASIS) wife, Kira. As big companies move into our homes through Google Homepods, Amazon Echos, Facebook Portals, the human connection element needs to be maintained.

3. The ability to disguise your identity online. “In the OASIS, you could become whomever and whatever you wanted to be, without ever revealing your true identity, because your anonymity was guaranteed.” This quote about the OASIS is largely true of today’s Internet. Through private browsing, Virtual Private Networks, avoiding Google and ad-tagging websites, people are able to stay anonymous online already. But what the OASIS does in addition, is allow you to modify not only your back-story, but also how you appear to others, something that is very important in VR. While there is no question that Wade, Art3mis and Aech are able to avoid insecurities by masking their identities, eventually those insecurities are revealed, albeit with little consequence. Given the myriad of leaks and breaches in the last few years (Yahoo, Facebook, DoorDash, etc.), as the VR ecosystem continues to grow, increasing amounts of privacy will be needed to maintain anonymity.

Business themes

1. What is the dominant revenue model in VR? The evil villains at Innovative Online Industries (IOI) and their army of sixers have tried several hostile takeover attempts to acquire Halliday’s Gregarious Simulations Systems in order to convert it to a paid user model. IOI is the world’s largest internet service provider and just like other three letter named tech behemoths (cough, IBM, cough), fits the classic evil corporation vibe. Dismissing the potential business and technology conflicts (the world’s largest ISP is probably critical in delivering the OASIS throughout the world), its interesting to theorize what the dominant revenue model of VR may be. Facebook recently launched its VR world to complement its Oculus devices and there have been varied attempts to launch similar software worlds like Rec Room. The big discovery Google made early on was that advertising would be the business model of the web. Facebook copied this as it created social networking and as devices transitioned from desktop to mobile, and image to video, advertising continued to be the dominant mode of content monetization. Is there any reason to think VR will be any different? Potentially. The current dominant model for video gaming is subscriber based, freemium (paying for enhanced abilities, character changes, etc.) or single purchase. While there is no reason these ideas can’t be combined with advertising, the idea of a multi-world VR landscape may reduce some of the targeted ROI you receive from very specific ad-targeting on Instagram and Google today. In a limitless world, advertising to specific people will be difficult. Beyond that, porting the mish-mash of complex technologies used in today’s advertising landscape would add even more challenge.

2. The BIG, evil tech corporation. IOI is the quintessential evil technology company. As the world’s largest ISP, IOI could be a reference to Comcast, which is the United States’ largest ISP and often referenced as one of the most hated companies. Comcast, like other ISPs is always facing the challenge of serving millions of subscribers but unlike other companies, they are monopolistic in certain areas where they are the only viable provider for internet, allowing them to raise prices and treat customers poorly. The big, evil technology corporation cliché has been around for a long time and today’s largest tech companies have all spent sometime being that cliché. This dynamic can arise for many reasons. At Amazon, it’s the continued alienation of open source communities, the anti-competitive behavior around its search algorithm and the smothering of small vendors on its marketplace. Facebook and Google have both faced privacy concerns. Google has been sued for manipulating search on mobile devices. Microsoft was sued for anti-trust issues over browsers. As startups begin to dominate their core businesses, unless they continue innovating, they begin acting defensively to maintain their leading position. Facebook feature copied Snapchat stories almost immediately after they came out. IBM had a book written on them in the 1980s claiming they were anticompetitive. There is a reason corporate communications (WeWork lol) are so important and maintaining the image of a positive change for good. Every major technology company has spent time as the evil one, some have just spent more time than others.

3. Difficulty in creating VR applications. Ready Player One stoked a lot interest in the promise of VR, but the actual implementation is incredibly difficult with the hardware and software we have available as tools today. Moore’s law is slowing and some computer scientists have suggested specific chips to address the demands of newer technologies like Artificial Intelligence, Virtual Reality and Deep Learning. After Facebook acquired Oculus in 2014 for $2.4B, funding continued to flow into VR startups. Magic Leap, the highly secretive and most heavily funded VR startup has raised $2.3B on its own, and after years of development finally released its hardware for over $2,000 per device and its unclear if it makes a profit on any sales yet. More recently, several VR companies have gone bankrupt and laid off employees as product development didn’t reach application or end users before the funding ran out. While the software and hardware continues to improve, a lot still needs to be figured out before VR becomes mainstream.

Dig Deeper

  • VR Garden in Montreal

  • Oculus co-founder Palmer Lucky’s review of Magic Leap

  • Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality in Healthcare

  • Deep dive into the secretive Magic Leap

  • The real world easter egg hunt from Ready Player One

tags: Ernest Cline, VR, AR, Video Games, IBM, Facebook, Snap, Google, Amazon, Apple, War Games, VPN, DoorDash, Yahoo, Rec Room, Magic Leap, Oculus, Deep Learning, batch2
categories: Fiction
 

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