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January 2023 - Ride of a Lifetime by Bob Iger

This month we look at the recent history of Disney and its famous leader, Bob Iger.

Tech Themes

  1. Creative Trust. Bob began his career at ABC Television, eventually working his way into ABC Sports and their newly acquired Entertainment and Sports Programming Network (ESPN). Their Bob came under the toutalege of Roone Arledge, a famous broadcast executive known for his commitment to storytelling, and his lack of compassion for sub-par work. Bob saw first hand how Roone would get close to the start of production, only to make several last minute tweaks to the overall program, sometimes throwing out all of the work that had been done to offer the audience a better program. Bob understood this creative process was messy and inefficient, but crucial to producing high quality programming. After ABC was acquired by Capital Cities, Tom Murphy and Dan Burke promoted Iger into a new role as head of ABC entertainment. Upon being handed a stack of 40 scripts on his first day, Bob wondered what he was even supposed to be looking for in a script. “I started to realize over time, though, that I’d internalized a lot by watching Roone tell stories all those years.” In his first season as president, Iger decided to go ahead with an off-putting, creepy drama directed by David Lynch called Twin Peaks. At one point, Murphy was so concerned about airing the show, that he told Bob, “You can’t air this. If we put it on television, it will kill our company’s reputation.” Iger pushed back, enthralled that the creative community love the risk the network was taking. A 1990 New York Times article spells out the risky show’s language: “The offending usage was in a Wall Street Journal story about Robert Iger, a bold television producer: ''Even if 'Twin Peaks' caves in, it has already won ABC new cache in Hollywood as the hands-off network, eager for ideas that are daring and different.'' Iger learned early, it pays to take big and bold risks, especially with the creative community.

  2. Bob Iger and Steve Jobs. One of the first things Bob Iger did when he became CEO of Disney was call Steve Jobs. Disney’s prior CEO, Michael Eisner, had spent years arguing a battle for who had the better legal position in the Disney-Pixar distribution relationship. Pixar had succeeded everyone’s wildest dreams with films like Toy Story, A Bug’s Life, and Finding Nemo, but Disney wanted full control of Pixar’s characters and the rights to film sequels. Iger describeds the kerfuffle: “Steve’s animosity toward Disney was too deep-rooted. The rift that had opened between Steve and Michael [Eisner] was a clash between two strong-willed people whose companies’ fortunes were going in different directions. When Disney Animation began to slip even further, Steve became more haughty with Michael because he flet we needed him more, and Michael hated that Steve had the upper hand.” Iger, ever the flatterer discussed with Jobs how he loved his iPod and wanted to put Disney shows on future generations of the device. Steve responded by showing Iger the new iPhone prototype they were developing. They agreed on a deal and Iger strode on stage at the iPod video launch in 2005. In his first board meeting as official CEO, Iger proposed buying Pixar. The company was half owned by Steve Jobs, who had bought it from his friend and Star Wars creator George Lucas for a measly $5 million (plus several $20-30m equity checks). After receiving approval from the board to look at an acquisition, Iger called Jobs from his car phone: “I’ve been thinking about our respective futures, What do you think about the idea of Disney buying Pixar?” Jobs responded - “You know, that’s not the craziest idea in the world.” A few weeks later, the two sat in the Apple boardroom sketching a simple pros and cons list on the whiteboard. For all of the math and financial analysis that goes into an acquisition, its hilariously to envision Steve and Bob doing what anyone would do to analyze an acquisition. “Two hours later, the pros were meager and the cons were abundant, even if a few of them, in my estimation were quite petty…’A few solid pros are more powerful than dozens of cons,’ Steve said." The agreement was negotiated an in 2006, Disney acquired Pixar for a $7.4B equity value. Right before the merger was announced, Steve took Bob for a walk around Apple’s campus, and told him that his cancer had returned. “He told me the cancer was now in his liver and he talked about the odds of beating it. He was going to do whatever it took to be at his son Reed’s high school graduation, he said. When he told me that was four years away, I felt devestated. It was impossible to be having these two conversations - about Steve facing his impending death and about the deal we were supposed to be closing in minutes - at the same time.” The deal ultimately closed and Jobs became Disney’s largest shareholder and a board member at the company, during which Disney’s stock performed very well.

  3. BamTECH. When Iger became CEO, he launched a three part plan to return Disney to the top of media and creativity. The plan was clear: “1) We needed to devote most of our time and capital to the creation of high quality branded content. 2) We needed to embrace technology to the fullest extent, first by using it to enable the creation of higher quality products, and then to reach more consumers in amore modern, more relevant ways. 3) We needed to become a truly global company.” If Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm were an answer to part one, BAMTech was the answer to part two. Baseball Advanced Media Technologies was a company founded by Major League Baseball in 2000 to build out a digital radio streaming service for overseas listeners to the MLB playoffs. MLB Advanced Media was funded by a $1 million investment by each of its 30 teams for four consecutive years. Following a successful launch, BAMTech decided to try streaming live video of baseball games and launched MLB.tv, which soon became a major leader in streaming. Other leagues began to pay attention and soon the NHL had signed up BAMTech as its streaming partner, taking a 10% stake in the company. Soon ESPN, HBO, and the PGA Tour all signed on too. Disney used BAMTech as a back-end partner for the launch of its WatchESPN platform in 2010. So it was a natural extension for Iger, fresh off the massive success of the Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm acquisitions, to try to buy the company. In 2015, BAMTech was officially spun out of the MLB, and in August 2016, Walt Disney acquired 33% of the company in August 2016 for $1B, valuing the streaming platform at $3B. In 2017, it upped its stake to 75% for another $1.58B, then in August 2021 it acquired the NHL’s 10% interest. Finally, it bought the remaining 15% interest from the MLB for $828m in October 2022. Amazing companies can come from anywhere. Based on some simple rough math, the MLB earned a 23% IRR on initial $120m investment from 2000 to 2022, a 28x return.

Business Themes

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  1. The Guide of Experience. Its clear that Bob Iger was molded into an incredible businessman through a series of experiences that almost no one could predict would create to such a compelling leader. Because Iger began in the TV industry at ABC, he began the habit of waking up absurdly early, a trait shared by many successful leaders. “To this day, I wake nearly every morning at four-fifteen, though now I do it for selfish reasons: to have time to think and read and exercise before the demands of the day take over.” After moving over to sports, Bob learned the importance of high quality from Roone Arledge, but he also developed one of his greatest traits, finding compromise among competing interests. “In 1979, the World Table Tennis Championships were being held in Pyongyang, North Korea. Roone called me into his office one day and said, ‘This is going to be interesting. Let’s cover it on Wide World of Sports.’ I thought he was joking. He surely knew it would be impossible to secure the rights to an event in North Korea. He wasn’t joking. I then embarked on a worldwide pursuit to secure the rights. After a few months of intense negotiations, we were on the eve of closing the deal when I received a call from someone on the Asian desk in the U.S. State Department. ‘Everything you are doing with them is illegal,’ he said. ‘You’re in violation of strict U.S. Sanctions against doing any business with North Korea…’ I eventually arrived at a workoaround that involved securing the rights not through the host country but through the World Table Tennis Federation. The North Korean government, though we were no longer paying them, still agreed to let us in, and we became the first U.S. media team to enter North Korea in decades - a historic moment in sports broadcasting.” When ABC was purchased by Capital Cities, Bob began his relationship with Dan Burke and Tom Murphy. Warren Buffett famously praised the pair: “Tom Murphy and [his long-time business partner] Dan Burke were probably the greatest two-person combination in management that the world has ever seen or maybe ever will see.” Iger learned tons about business, acquisitions, budgeting, and decentralized management from Tom and Dan. They also gave Iger numerous opportunities to prove himself and take risks, like the Twin Peaks launch. Later, when Cap Cities was acquired by Disney, Iger gained a front-row seat to Michael Eisner’s leadership style. Eisner was once regarded as one of the best CEOs in the world, but languished as the stress of managing a massive company caused him to become increasingly defensive and depressed. Despite sharing a complicated relationship, Iger learned a lot about managing Disney from Eisner, including what he didn’t want to do once he got the role. In hindsight, its no surprise that Iger became the leader he became, even though it wasn’t clear as it was unfolding.

  2. A tale of M&A. Although Disney sticks in people’s minds as a family friendly media company, its sprawling empire has grown to include ABC, ESPN, Marvel, the Simpsons, Star Wars, Pixar, Marvel, Hotstar, National Geographic, Hulu, 20th Century Studios, X-Men, Deadpool, Fx, Disney World, Disney Cruise Line, and Disney+. This empire was constructed through many M&A deals. The first major M&A deal was the 1995 $19B Disney, Capital Cities merger, which was the second largest corporate takeover (to KKR’s RJR Nabisco LBO) ever. Warren Buffett became one of the largest shareholders of Disney, which he sold over the next few years, only to massively miss out on the growth of ESPN and eventually the content domination that Iger began. The deal took a while to digest, and vastly expanded Disney’s operations. Eisner’s legendarily poor hire of talent agent Michael Ovitz compounded pressures, and Eisner relied even more heavily on Disney’s Strategic Planning group to make corporate decisions. From 1995 to 2005, Disney’s stock increased only 25%, and Eisner was forced out in a brutal, public proxy battle. Once Iger took over, he collapsed the Strat Planning department under rising star Kevin Mayer, and began the series of acquisitions that marked his tenure. After Pixar, Iger turned to Marvel, which was stumbling along as a comic book and toy producer to a shrinking population of interested buyers. Despite its relatively small size, Marvel had a fascinating corporate history. In the late 80’s, Ron Perelman, billionaire businessman, bought Marvel for a mere $82m. However, after the comic book boom faded, Marvel fell into bankruptcy, and Icahn stepped in to buy Marvel’s distressed debt eventually becoming chairman of the board through a protracted legal process. At the last second, Ike Perlmutter and Avi Arad, managers of the largest susidiary of Marvel, Toy Biz, proposed a better offer to the bankruptcy court, and eventually wrestled control away from both Perelman and Icahn. By the time Disney came knocking in 2008, Marvel was beginning to produce its own films, after several successful Spider-Man and X-men films. While a lot of Disney executives believed Marvel was too edgy for Disney, Iger took a longer term view and bought the company for $4B, which has clearly paid off. Alongside the acquisition of Marvel, Disney invested about $100m for a 30% stake in a new streaming service created by NBC and News Corp called Hulu. Next, Iger turned to Lucasfilm, the maker of Star Wars. George Lucas was very reluctant to sell to Disney, and it took four and half years of convincing: “We went over and over the same ground - George saying he couldn’t just hand over his legacy, me saying we couldn’t buy it and not control it - and twice walked away from the table and called the deal off. (We walked the first time and George walked the second).” Eventually, Disney acquired Lucasfilm for $4.05B, another great content acquisition that has worked out well. While Iger is credited with these amazing acquisitions, his latest and biggest acquisition has raised the most questions for Disney. In 2017, Disney announced it would buy 20th Century Fox for $52B in stock, and the assumption of $13.7B of Fox’s net debt. However, the deal faced a long regulatory approval process, during which the US Justice Department ruled in favor of AT&T buying Time Warner. With what seemed like a favorable M&A environment, Comcast entered the fray, proposing an all cash bid at $35 a share or $64B. Disney upped its offer to $38 a share, half in cash and half in stock. Fox accepted Disney’s new bid (of $71B), and Disney closed the deal in March of 2019. While the deal did bring X-men, Deadpool, Fantastic Four, the Simpsons, Family Guy, it added $19B of debt to its balance sheet. In addition, Disney spent time selling Fox’s Sky ownership to Comcast, and the regional sports networks owned by Fox. These divestitures were necessary for the regulatory approval of the deal and netted Disney $24B ($15B from Sky and $9.6B from the sports networks). Covid through Disney for a loop, and its higher leverage from the Fox deal, caused the elimination of its dividend, and an obvious massive reduction to its parks business. Time will tell if the Fox Deal yields the same great results that Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm produced - I wonder if this wasn’t too big for the integration risk entailed.

  3. Walt Proxy. Disney has a rich history in not only animated characters but business characters as well. The company has repeatedly been subject to proxy battles. Iger’s first proxy battle began slowly then grew into a massive public boardroom debate. In 2002, Roy E. Disney and Stanley Gold, expressed their disappointment in Michael Eisner’s choices as CEO of Disney, sending a letter to the board demanding his removal. Eisner retailiated, “turning to the company’s governance guidlines regarding board member tenure, which stipulated that board members had to retire at age seventy-two. Rather than telling Roy himself, though, Michael had the chairman of the board’s nominating committee inform him that he would not be allowed to stand for reeelection and would be retired as of the next shareholders meeting in March 2004.” Roy began a public campaign called “Save Disney” where he called for Michael’s retirement and for him to rejoin the board. At the same time, Comcast launched a hostile bid for Disney. While Comcast would eventually find its content companion in NBC/Universal years later, this bid added heat to the situation. Comcast was unable to complete its bid, but the shareholder vote still turned out poorly for Eisner, with 43% of shareholders withholding support for him as CEO. He was promptly stripped of his chairman title, and in the fall of 2004, announced his resignation at the end of his contract in 2006. Fast forward to 2023, and Disney is back in the proxy battle world, this time facing up against Nelson Peltz, the famous activist investor. Under scrutiny are Disney’s acquisition of Fox, its exorbitant streaming losses, the cancellation of its dividend, the massive debt load it carries, and its large Netflix-competing content spend. The board recently announced that Iger would come back as CEO, despite clearly saying his time was over in the book. Iger’s successor, Bob Chapek, had a terrible run as Disney CEO, including shutting down the company, a public row with the State of Florida and Scarlett Johansson, and a centralization process that took control away from the creatives. I guess the Ride of a Lifetime is not over.

    Dig Deeper

  • The Complete History Of Walt Disney World, Part 1 (1960s-1996)

  • Bob Iger: I felt a sense of obligation to return to Disney as CEO

  • Steve Jobs and John Lasseter interview on Pixar (1996)

  • Tom Murphy Interview | Michael Eisner Interview | Bob Iger Interview 2011

  • Restore the Magic Trian Partners Presentation

tags: Bob Iger, Disney, ABC, Capital Cities, Tom Murphy, Dan Burke, Roone Arledge, ESPN, David Lynch, Steve Jobs, Michael Eisner, Pixar, BAMTech, MLB, HBO, Hulu, Warren Buffett, KKR, Marvel, Star Wars, Lucasfilm, Michael Ovitz, Kevin Mayer, Ron Perelman, Carl Icahn, Ike Perlmutter, Avi Arad, Comcast, Sky, Nelson Peltz, Trian, NBCU, Roy Disney
categories: Non-Fiction
 

February 2022 - Cable Cowboy by Mark Robichaux

This month we jump into the history of the cable industry in the US with Cable Cowboy. The book follows cable’s main character for over 30 years, John Malone, the intense, deal-addicted CEO of Telecommunications International (TCI).

Tech Themes

  1. Repurposed Infrastructure. Repurposed infrastructure is one of the incredible drivers of technological change covered in Carlota Perez’s Technology Revolutions and Financial Capital. When a new technology wave comes along, it builds on the backs of existing infrastructure to reach a massive scale. Railroads laid the foundation for oil transport pipelines. Later, telecommunications companies used the miles and miles of cleared railroad land to hang wires to provide phone service through the US. Cable systems were initially used to pull down broadcast signals and bring them to remote places. Over time, more and more content providers like CNN, TBS, BET started to produce shows with cable distribution in mind. Cable became a bigger and bigger presence, so when the internet began to gain steam in the early 1990s, Cable was ready to play a role. It just so happened that Cable was best positioned to provide internet service to individual homes because, unlike the phone companies’ copper wiring, Cable had made extensive use of coaxial fiber which provided much faster speeds. In 1997, after an extended period of underperformance for the Cable industry, Microsoft announced a $1B investment in Comcast. The size of the deal showed the importance of cable providers in the growth of the internet.

  2. Pipes + Content. One of the major issues surrounding TCI as they faced anti-trust scrutiny was their ownership of multiple TV channels. Malone realized that the content companies could make significant profits, especially when content was shown across multiple cable systems. TCI enjoyed the same Scale Economies Power as Netflix. Once the cable channel produces content, any way to spread the content cost over more subscribers is a no-brainer. However, these content deals were worrisome given TCI’s massive cable presence (>8,000,000 subscribers). TCI would frequently demand that channels take an equity investment to access TCI’s cable system. “In exchange for getting on TCI systems, TCI drove a tough bargain. He demanded that cable networks either allow TCI to invest in them directly, or they had to give TCI discounts on price, since TCI bought in bulk. In return for most-favored-nation-status on price, TCI gave any programmer immediate access to nearly one-fifth of all US subscribers in a single stroke.” TCI would impose its dominant position - we can either carry your channel and make an investment, or you can miss out on 8 million subscribers. Channels would frequently choose the former. Malone tried to avoid anti-trust by creating Liberty Media. This spinoff featured all of TCI’s investments in cable providers, offering a pseudo-separation from the telecom giant (although John Malone would completely control liberty).

  3. Early, Not Wrong. Several times in history, companies or people were early to an idea before it was feasible. Webvan formed the concept of an online grocery store that could deliver fresh groceries to your house. It raised $800M before flaming out in the public markets. Later, Instacart came along and is now worth over $30B. There are many examples: Napster/Spotify, MySpace/Facebook, Pets.com/Chewy, Go Corporation/iPad, and Loudcloud/AWS. The early idea in the telecom industry was the information superhighway. We’ve discussed this before, but the idea is that you would use your tv to access the outside world, including ordering Pizza, accessing bank info, video calling friends, watching shows, and on-demand movies. The first instantiation of this idea was the QUBE, an expensive set-top box that gave users a plethora of additional interactive services. The QUBE was the launch project of a joint venture between American Express and Warner Communications to launch a cable system in the late 1970s. The QUBE was introduced in 1982 but cost way too much money to produce. With steep losses and mounting debt, Warner Amex Cable “abandoned the QUBE because it was financially infeasible.” In 1992, Malone delivered a now-famous speech on the future of the television industry, predicting that TVs would offer 500 channels to subscribers, with movies, communications, and shopping. 10 years after the QUBE’s failure, Time Warner tried to fulfill Malone’s promise by launching the Full-Service Network (FSN) with the same idea - offering a ton of services to users through a specialized hardware + software approach. This box was still insanely expensive (>$1,000 per box) because the company had to develop all hardware and software. After significant losses, the project was closed. It wasn’t until recently that TV’s evolved to what so many people thought they might become during those exciting internet boom years of the late 1990s. In this example and several above, sometimes the idea is correct, but the medium or user experience is wrong. It turned out that people used a computer and the internet to access shop, order food, or chat with friends, not the TV. In 2015, Domino’s announced that you could now order Pizza from your TV.

Business Themes

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  1. Complicated Transactions. Perhaps the craziest deal in John Malone’s years of experience in complex deal-making was his spinoff of Liberty Media. Liberty represented the content arm of TCI and held positions in famous channels like CNN and BET. Malone was intrigued at structuring a deal that would evade taxes and give himself the most potential upside. To create this “artificial” upside, Malone engineered a rights offering, whereby existing TCI shareholders could purchase the right to swap 16 shares of TCI for 1 share of Liberty. Malone set the price to swap at a ridiculously high value of TCI shares - ~valuing Liberty at $300 per share. “It seemed like such a lopsided offer: 16 shares of TCI for just 1 share of Liberty? That valued Liberty at $3000 a share, for a total market value of more than $600M by Malone’s reckoning. How could that be, analysts asked, given that Liberty posed a loss on revenue fo a mere $52M for the pro-forma nine months? No one on Wall Street expected the stock to trade up to $300 anytime soon.” The complexity of the rights offering + spinoff made the transaction opaque enough that even seasoned investors were confused about how it all worked and declined to buy the rights. This deal meant Malone would have more control of the newly separate Liberty Media. At the same time, the stock spin had such low participation that shares were initially thinly traded. Once people realized the quality of the company’s assets, the stock price shot up, along with Malone’s net worth. Even crazier, Malone took a loan from the new Liberty Media to buy shares of the company, meaning he had just created a massive amount of value by putting up hardly any capital. For a man that loved complex deals, this deal is one of his most complex and most lucrative.

  2. Deal Maker Extraordinaire / Levered Rollups. John Malone and TCI loved deals and hated taxes. When TCI was building out cable networks, they acquired a new cable system almost every two weeks. Malone popularized using EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) as a proxy for real cash flow relative to net income, which incorporates tax and interest payments. To Malone, debt could be used for acquisitions to limit paying taxes and build scale. Once banks got comfortable with EBITDA, Malone went on an acquisition tear. “From 1984 to 1987, Malone had spent nearly $3B for more than 150 cable companies, placing TCI wires into one out of nearly every five with cable in the country, a penetration that was twice that of its next largest rival.” Throughout his career, he rallied many different cable leaders to find a deal that worked for everyone. In 1986, when fellow industry titan Ted Turner ran into financial trouble, Malone reached out to Viacom leader Sumner Redstone, to avoid letting Time Inc (owner of HBO) buy Turner’s CNN. After a quick negotiation, 31 cable operators agreed to rescue Turner Broadcasting with a $550M investment, allowing Turner to maintain control and avoid a takeover. Later, Malone led an industry consortium that included TCI, Comcast, and Cox to create a high speed internet service called, At Home, in 1996. “At Home was responsible for designing the high-speed network and providing services such as e-mail, and a home page featuring news, entertainment, sports, and chat groups. Cable operators were required to upgrade their local systems to accommodate two-way transmission, as well as handle marketing, billing, and customer complaints, for which they would get 65% of the revenue.” At Home ended up buying early internet search company Excite in a famous $7.5B deal, that diluted cable owners and eventually led to bankruptcy for the combined companies. Malone’s instinct was always to try his best to work with a counterparty because he genuinely believed a deal between two competitors provided better outcomes to everyone.

  3. Tracking Stocks. Malone popularized the use of tracking stocks, which are publicly traded companies that mirror the operating performance of the underlying asset owned by a company. John Malone loved tracking stocks because they could be used to issue equity to finance operations and give investors access to specific divisions of a conglomerate while allowing the parent to maintain full control. While tracking stocks have been out of favor (except for Liberty Media, LOL), they were once highly regarded and even featured in the original planning of AT&T’s $48B purchase of TCI in 1998. AT&T financed its TCI acquisition with debt and new AT&T stock, diluting existing shareholders. AT&T CEO Michael Armstrong had initially agreed to use tracking stocks to separate TCI’s business from the declining but cash-flowing telephone business but changed his mind after AT&T’s stock rocketed following the TCI deal announcement. Malone was angry with Armstrong’s actions, and the book includes an explanation: “heres why you should mess with it, Mike: You’ve just issued more than 400 million new shares of AT&T to buy a business that produces no earnings. It will be a huge money-loser for years, given how much you’ll spend on broadband. That’s going to sharply dilute your earnings per share, and your old shareholders like earnings. That will hurt your stock price, and then you can’t use stock to make more acquisitions, then you’re stuck. If you create a tracking stock to the performance of cable, you separate out the losses we produce and show better earnings for your main shareholders; and you can use the tracker to buy more cable interests in tax-free deals.” Tracking stocks all but faded from existence following the internet bubble and early 2000s due to their difficulty of implementation and complexity, which can confuse shareholders and cause the businesses to trade at a large discount. This all begs the question, though - which companies could use tracking stock today? Imagine an AWS tracker, a Youtube tracker, an Instagram tracker, or an Xbox tracker - all of these could allow cloud companies to attract new shareholders, do more specific tax-free mergers, and raise additional capital specific to a business unit.

Dig Deeper

  • John Malone’s Latest Interview with CNBC (Nov 2021)

  • John Malone on LionTree’s Kindred Cast

  • A History of AT&T

  • Colorado Experience: The Cable Revolution

  • An Overview on Spinoffs

tags: John Malone, TCI, CNN, TBS, BET, Cable, Comcast, Microsoft, Netflix, Liberty Media, Napster, Spotify, MySpace, Facebook, Pets.com, Chewy, Go Corporation, iPad, Loudcloud, AWS, American Express, Warner, Time Warner, Domino's, Viacom, Sumner Redstone, Ted Turner, Bill Gates, At Home, Excite, AT&T, Michael Armstrong, Bob Magness, Instagram, YouTube, Xbox
categories: Non-Fiction
 

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